Discussion:
HAM #3
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News
2020-08-18 15:36:00 UTC
Permalink
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/formula-one-fastest-driver-ayrton-senna-amazon-data/

FASTEST F1 DRIVERS SINCE 1983

Ranking Driver Timings
1 Ayrton Senna 0
2 M. Schumacher 0.114
3 Lewis Hamilton 0.275
4 Max Verstappen 0.28
5 Fernando Alonso 0.309
6 Nico Rosberg 0.374
7 Charles Leclerc 0.376
8 Heikki Kovalainen 0.378
9 Jarno Trulli 0.409
10 Sebastian Vettel 0.435
Heron
2020-08-18 15:49:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by News
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/formula-one-fastest-driver-ayrton-senna-amazon-data/
FASTEST F1 DRIVERS SINCE 1983
Ranking    Driver        Timings
1    Ayrton Senna        0
2    M. Schumacher    0.114
3    Lewis Hamilton    0.275
4    Max Verstappen    0.28
5    Fernando Alonso    0.309
6    Nico Rosberg        0.374
7    Charles Leclerc    0.376
8    Heikki Kovalainen    0.378
9    Jarno Trulli        0.409
10    Sebastian Vettel    0.435
Senna and Schumacher faster than Hamilton, official F1 study claims
https://www.racefans.net/2020/08/18/senna-and-schumacher-faster-than-hamilton-official-f1-study-claims/

Check out the comments section that addresses
and delineates the hows and whys of just what an
absolute joke this purported study actually is.
Alan Baker
2020-08-18 17:15:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Heron
Post by News
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/formula-one-fastest-driver-ayrton-senna-amazon-data/
FASTEST F1 DRIVERS SINCE 1983
Ranking    Driver        Timings
1    Ayrton Senna        0
2    M. Schumacher    0.114
3    Lewis Hamilton    0.275
4    Max Verstappen    0.28
5    Fernando Alonso    0.309
6    Nico Rosberg        0.374
7    Charles Leclerc    0.376
8    Heikki Kovalainen    0.378
9    Jarno Trulli        0.409
10    Sebastian Vettel    0.435
Senna and Schumacher faster than Hamilton, official F1 study claims
https://www.racefans.net/2020/08/18/senna-and-schumacher-faster-than-hamilton-official-f1-study-claims/
Check out the comments section that addresses
and delineates the hows and whys of just what an
absolute joke this purported study actually is.
YOU check it out and provide for us the best arguments made there.
CS
2020-08-18 18:29:47 UTC
Permalink
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the algorithm for UK exam results?? 🤔🤔
Brian Lawrence
2020-08-18 19:20:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the algorithm for UK exam results?? 🤔🤔
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.

Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.

Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
~misfit~
2020-08-19 00:26:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the algorithm for UK exam results?? 🤔🤔
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of qualifying, with each driver able to
do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as Ferrari's strategy was to
have a solid point collector in the number 2 seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started
really watching every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak to his
situation with regard to team mates.

In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to race - to the point where
Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer
in his stats.
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy little classification
in the DSM"
David Melville

This is not an email and hasn't been checked for viruses by any half-arsed self-promoting software.
Alan Baker
2020-08-19 01:11:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? 🤔🤔
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?

You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
Martin Harran
2020-08-19 09:08:37 UTC
Permalink
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
Alan Baker
2020-08-19 16:24:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Martin Harran
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
None.

But that doesn't prove anything.
Martin Harran
2020-08-20 07:26:56 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 19 Aug 2020 09:24:03 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
None.
But that doesn't prove anything.
So what evidence do you have that Mercedes don't let their drivers
race?
Alan Baker
2020-08-20 08:46:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Martin Harran
On Wed, 19 Aug 2020 09:24:03 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
None.
But that doesn't prove anything.
So what evidence do you have that Mercedes don't let their drivers
race?
I don't need any evidence to point out that there is no evidence that
has been presented that they do let their drivers race.
Martin Harran
2020-08-20 09:23:32 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 20 Aug 2020 01:46:41 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Wed, 19 Aug 2020 09:24:03 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
None.
But that doesn't prove anything.
So what evidence do you have that Mercedes don't let their drivers
race?
I don't need any evidence to point out that there is no evidence that
has been presented that they do let their drivers race.
1) Toto Wolf has said repeatedly that they allow the drivers to race.
I see no reason to regard Tota as a blatant liar.

2) We saw the extreme competitiveness between Hamilton and Rosberg.
The only time the team complained was when they took each other off
the track; all the team ever said was "give each other room".

3) The team have not interfered with Bottas when he has won against
Hamilton.

What evidence have you to contradict all that?
Martin Harran
2020-08-26 08:19:33 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 20 Aug 2020 10:23:32 +0100, Martin Harran
Post by Martin Harran
On Thu, 20 Aug 2020 01:46:41 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Wed, 19 Aug 2020 09:24:03 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
None.
But that doesn't prove anything.
So what evidence do you have that Mercedes don't let their drivers
race?
I don't need any evidence to point out that there is no evidence that
has been presented that they do let their drivers race.
1) Toto Wolf has said repeatedly that they allow the drivers to race.
I see no reason to regard Tota as a blatant liar.
2) We saw the extreme competitiveness between Hamilton and Rosberg.
The only time the team complained was when they took each other off
the track; all the team ever said was "give each other room".
3) The team have not interfered with Bottas when he has won against
Hamilton.
What evidence have you to contradict all that?
No answer to this, Alan?
~misfit~
2020-08-26 11:52:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Martin Harran
On Thu, 20 Aug 2020 10:23:32 +0100, Martin Harran
Post by Martin Harran
On Thu, 20 Aug 2020 01:46:41 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Wed, 19 Aug 2020 09:24:03 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Martin Harran
On Tue, 18 Aug 2020 18:11:19 -0700, Alan Baker
Post by Alan Baker
Post by ~misfit~
Post by Brian Lawrence
Post by CS
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the
algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
In Senna's case from 1983 to 1994 every GP included 120min of
qualifying, with each driver able to do as many laps as they
wanted. In practice they mostly did about 25-30 laps in total,
but they could run stints of several laps at a time.
Since the 3-part qualifying began, most drivers do at most 6
quick laps, with an out lap and an in lap.
Clearly the algorithm should allow for that, but ....
Also Schumacher (in particular) was rarely pushed by his team mate as
Ferrari's strategy was to have a solid point collector in the number 2
seat rather than a contender for wins. I only started really watching
every F1 race of the season at the end of Senna's career so can't speak
to his situation with regard to team mates.
In contrast to Ferrari Mercedes have always allowed their drivers to
race - to the point where Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC. So
obviously the gap to team mate is going to be closer in his stats.
Given that Rosberg won that title mostly due to the number of problems
Hamilton experienced that year, right?
You can hardly point to it as proof that Mercedes lets their drivers race.
How many instances can you point to where Mercedes clearly issued team
oders to favour Hamilton?
None.
But that doesn't prove anything.
So what evidence do you have that Mercedes don't let their drivers
race?
I don't need any evidence to point out that there is no evidence that
has been presented that they do let their drivers race.
1) Toto Wolf has said repeatedly that they allow the drivers to race.
I see no reason to regard Tota as a blatant liar.
2) We saw the extreme competitiveness between Hamilton and Rosberg.
The only time the team complained was when they took each other off
the track; all the team ever said was "give each other room".
3) The team have not interfered with Bottas when he has won against
Hamilton.
What evidence have you to contradict all that?
No answer to this, Alan?
When somebody doesn't fart frankly I don't see the point in asking them why not.

<queue Texarsegay>
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy little classification
in the DSM"
David Melville

This is not an email and hasn't been checked for viruses by any half-arsed self-promoting software.
t***@gmail.com
2020-08-19 02:52:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by ~misfit~
Hamilton's team mate (Rosberg) won a WDC.
You seem to have twisted obsession with rosberg and stroll.
You fucking weirdo.
Post by ~misfit~
--
Shaun.
"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy little classification
in the DSM"
David Melville
This is not an email and hasn't been checked for viruses by any half-arsed self-promoting software.
Martin Harran
2020-08-19 09:19:26 UTC
Permalink
And was the algorithm written by the same bozos who wrote the algorithm for UK exam results?? ??
It's a bit like the exams algorithm, taking average previous
performance for the "school" that the driver belonged to. Senna tops
the list because the gap between him and Hill was more than the gap
between Schumacher and Barrichello and in turn, that gap was greater
than the gap between Hamilton and Bottas.

The silliness of the algorithm is illustrated by Leclerc coming 7th
even though he has never had a car that gives him the chance to
consistently deliver on his exceptional talent.
Dai Jones
2020-08-26 20:31:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by News
8    Heikki Kovalainen    0.378
Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

The winner of one race and one pole position.

It would appear another of Boris Johnson's 'mutant algorithms' has got
into the computer.
Brian Lawrence
2020-08-28 10:09:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dai Jones
Post by News
8    Heikki Kovalainen    0.378
Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
The winner of one race and one pole position.
It would appear another of Boris Johnson's 'mutant algorithms' has got
into the computer.
AIUI the data was compared with a driver's team-mates' data.


<https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.hamilton-schumacher-senna-machine-learning-reveals-the-fastest-f1-driver-of.3DwwPLW4glCmlunjciH1Cz.html>

The list was actually the top 20:

11 Rubens Barrichello 0.445s
12 Nico Hulkenberg 0.456s
13 Valtteri Bottas 0.457s
14 Carlos Sainz 0.457s
15 Lando Norris 0.459s
16 Daniel Ricciardo 0.461s
17 Jenson Button 0.462s
18 Robert Kubica 0.463s
19 Giancarlo Fisichella 0.469s
20 Alain Prost 0.514s

Heikki was only really compared to Lewis & Jarno, both in the top 10.

Hulk, Sainz & Norris wouldn't be in many peoples list of 'quickest of
the last 40 years'.
Brian Lawrence
2020-08-28 10:46:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brian Lawrence
Heikki was only really compared to Lewis & Jarno, both in the top 10.
His team-mates were:

2007 Fisichella Renault
2008-09 Hamilton McLaren
2010-11 Trulli Lotus
2012 Petrov Caterham
2013 Grosjean Lotus

Fisi was 19th overall, while Petrov & Grosjean (2 GPs) would probably
rank quite low.

Mark
2020-08-28 08:55:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by News
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/formula-one-fastest-driver-ayrton-senna-amazon-data/
FASTEST F1 DRIVERS SINCE 1983
Just my view on this as someone who has worked with IT for three
decades and work with researchers on Data Analytics, including using
AI/ML/DL techniques...

As with so many studies, the devil is in the detail. This particular
study hasn't really been fully explained in the cnet article, so it's
hard to come to firm conclusions either on what they were trying to
analyse, let alone (precisely) how they did so.

There are clearly some challenges in making inter-generational
comparisons (which is why we go round this circle so often), and there
are various ways to _try_ to resolve them.

Similarly, you have to remember that most ML models and tools are
designed to spot patterns (often those that elude humans), but it's down
to other (typically human-based) processes to refine the results to sort
the correlation from the causation. Simply throwing the data at ML
tools will give you interesting data (and I'm not saying that this is
all that they've done, but they might have), but it doesn't necessarily
give you information or tell you what you think it does.

It looks as though the key elements here are:

- Various data points relating to raw speed in qualifying
- Relationships between overlapping careers of the different drivers

Right off the bat there are some potential issues that may (or may not)
have been ignored but which would have significant impact on the result
of the model:

1. Qualifying has changed in lots of different ways over the years:
- The nature of the session(s) themselves (single laps versus traffic,
knock-outs, length of session, etc.)
- The tyres available and how they can be warmed or generally played
with
- Fuelling strategies and fuel types (particularly before homologation)
- The cars (and configurations) available
- The tracks involved
- Many other factors which I'm sure the more knowledgeable in the group
know better than me
2. Implicit (I think) in the intergenerational link is an assumption
that it's possible to say that if A is faster than B and (later) B is
faster than C that you can assume that A is faster than C.

Okay, with (1) I guess the assumption is that everyone in a given season
faces the same challenges, but I don't think that necessarily evens-out
(particularly once that data is compared season-to-season) and a small
error-bar here could multiply up over time.

With (2), I think they face some significant issues.
- First, I think that over time you have to accept that other factors
affect performance and even if all other things (car, tracks, tyres,
refuelling, etc.) were the same over several years, drivers improve
and get worse (whether because of physical or psychological reasons,
because of experience, through loss of confidence, whatever) so if B
was on a bad year when facing A but had considerably developed when
they faced C, there is no way to know if A is better than C. The more
time that passes, the harder that link is to make.
- Second, all things aren't the same. You think of things like the
Active Suspension in the early 90s for Williams, the Benetton
electronics, the various dodgy ducts a decade ago, let alone the
question hanging over Ferrari over last year's engine. How do you
have a solid link between years across drivers and technologies?

Maybe they've done a very solid job in the study to try to allow for
these (and other) distorting factors, but that's not clear in the
report. If they haven't, it's an interesting bit of pattern-matching in
the data, but I don't think it tells us anything.

Of course, as a trigger for (even more) debate...
;-)
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