Discussion:
Drivers peak and decline younger now
(too old to reply)
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-17 13:17:50 UTC
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Hamilton and Vettel won their first wdc at 23 but this year we are seeing Hamilton decline at 33. The same will happen to Vettel in two years. The record for longest span between first and last wdc is of ten years held by Schumacher. And he has this record because of his dominating Ferrari in 2004. Lewis won his first wdc ten years ago and unless he has a dominating car it will be impossible for him to win the wdc ten years later...
larkim
2018-04-17 14:29:48 UTC
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Post by l***@gmail.com
Hamilton and Vettel won their first wdc at 23 but this year we are seeing Hamilton decline at 33. The same will happen to Vettel in two years. The record for longest span between first and last wdc is of ten years held by Schumacher. And he has this record because of his dominating Ferrari in 2004. Lewis won his first wdc ten years ago and unless he has a dominating car it will be impossible for him to win the wdc ten years later...
Can I get access to your crystal ball for the weekend's lottery numbers
please? You seem to know an awful lot about the future.
John McNamara
2018-04-20 21:25:07 UTC
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John is hem adict he talk stupid shit about i...when is hem...always blame at people for hem shit
bra
2018-04-21 16:04:13 UTC
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Post by John McNamara
John is hem adict he talk stupid shit about i...when is hem...always blame at people for hem shit
Rough draft for an "in-your-face, harrowing tale of mixed-race inner city youf"?

You are Will Self and I claim my 5 pun'.
bra
2018-04-17 15:29:10 UTC
Permalink
On Tuesday, April 17, 2018 at 6:17:52 AM UTC-7, ***@gmail.com wrote:

Peaking early.

Terry Fullerton wrote a good article on the problematics of kart racing. Terry is an 8-time British karting champ, and a world champ, team-mate of Senna.

Unlike the recent crop of kart-to-F1 teenagers, Fullerton was still racing in the kart world finals at the age of 27.

His complaint is that sports-car / monoposto teams swarm round the kart tracks and "hook up" with kids as young as 12 years. At many kart meets you can see publicity stands and cars and managers with contracts, trying to get the kids away from karting.

The effect is that from early on (and thanks to our own media) youngsters racing karts no longer see their kart racing as a sports career at all. They are told that it is ONLY a training ground, and not a motor sport in its own right.

Fullerton insists that --- in addition to karting's "Seniors / Masters" events, -- that kart racing can and should have its own 20-30 year old stars.

Worth reflecting on.
larkim
2018-04-17 16:00:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by bra
Peaking early.
Terry Fullerton wrote a good article on the problematics of kart racing. Terry is an 8-time British karting champ, and a world champ, team-mate of Senna.
Unlike the recent crop of kart-to-F1 teenagers, Fullerton was still racing in the kart world finals at the age of 27.
His complaint is that sports-car / monoposto teams swarm round the kart tracks and "hook up" with kids as young as 12 years. At many kart meets you can see publicity stands and cars and managers with contracts, trying to get the kids away from karting.
The effect is that from early on (and thanks to our own media) youngsters racing karts no longer see their kart racing as a sports career at all. They are told that it is ONLY a training ground, and not a motor sport in its own right.
Fullerton insists that --- in addition to karting's "Seniors / Masters" events, -- that kart racing can and should have its own 20-30 year old stars.
Worth reflecting on.
What does karting do about weight? I'd always assumed kids were fast partly
because they have a massive weight advantage over adults in karts.

I know in the past when my 12 year old spanked me at karting I blamed his
slight build for the speed advantage he had (and he was in a lower powered
kart).... ;-)
M2T
2018-04-17 19:48:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by larkim
Post by bra
Peaking early.
Terry Fullerton wrote a good article on the problematics of kart racing. Terry is an 8-time British karting champ, and a world champ, team-mate of Senna.
Unlike the recent crop of kart-to-F1 teenagers, Fullerton was still racing in the kart world finals at the age of 27.
His complaint is that sports-car / monoposto teams swarm round the kart tracks and "hook up" with kids as young as 12 years. At many kart meets you can see publicity stands and cars and managers with contracts, trying to get the kids away from karting.
The effect is that from early on (and thanks to our own media) youngsters racing karts no longer see their kart racing as a sports career at all. They are told that it is ONLY a training ground, and not a motor sport in its own right.
Fullerton insists that --- in addition to karting's "Seniors / Masters" events, -- that kart racing can and should have its own 20-30 year old stars.
Worth reflecting on.
What does karting do about weight? I'd always assumed kids were fast partly
because they have a massive weight advantage over adults in karts.
I know in the past when my 12 year old spanked me at karting I blamed his
slight build for the speed advantage he had (and he was in a lower powered
kart).... ;-)
http://www.karting.co.uk/KandK/classes.html
bra
2018-04-17 20:29:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by larkim
What does karting do about weight? I'd always assumed kids were fast partly
because they have a massive weight advantage over adults in karts.
I know in the past when my 12 year old spanked me at karting I blamed his
slight build for the speed advantage he had (and he was in a lower powered
kart).... ;-)
The official list just posted is nice, but does not say what class fits a 190lb man of 72 years ;-)
Halmyre
2018-04-18 08:01:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by larkim
Post by bra
Peaking early.
Terry Fullerton wrote a good article on the problematics of kart racing. Terry is an 8-time British karting champ, and a world champ, team-mate of Senna.
Unlike the recent crop of kart-to-F1 teenagers, Fullerton was still racing in the kart world finals at the age of 27.
His complaint is that sports-car / monoposto teams swarm round the kart tracks and "hook up" with kids as young as 12 years. At many kart meets you can see publicity stands and cars and managers with contracts, trying to get the kids away from karting.
The effect is that from early on (and thanks to our own media) youngsters racing karts no longer see their kart racing as a sports career at all. They are told that it is ONLY a training ground, and not a motor sport in its own right.
Fullerton insists that --- in addition to karting's "Seniors / Masters" events, -- that kart racing can and should have its own 20-30 year old stars.
Worth reflecting on.
What does karting do about weight? I'd always assumed kids were fast partly
because they have a massive weight advantage over adults in karts.
I know in the past when my 12 year old spanked me at karting I blamed his
slight build for the speed advantage he had (and he was in a lower powered
kart).... ;-)
I went for a kart session with colleagues from work and although I'm not particularly heavy I was slower than the smaller blokes. However I did manage to win in the race where it was my turn on pole position, just by sticking rigidly to the 'racing' line.

I then got into the car to drive home and nearly went straight over the top of the first roundabout I came to...
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-18 10:49:11 UTC
Permalink
Two drivers won their first WDC after reaching 40.

Fifteen won their first between 30 & 39.

Sixteen won their first between 20 & 29.

A total of 7 WDCs were won at an age over 40.

36 were won between 30 & 39.

25 were won under 30.

Five drivers won two WDCs under 30 - Clark, Lauda, Fittipaldi,
Schumacher & Alonso. Vettel won 4.
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-18 11:51:47 UTC
Permalink
The older ones did it over 25 years ago when the grid wasnt as young as it is now... Most of the drivers on the grid are in their 20s now. Kimi, Alonso and Hamilton are the 3 oldest drivers on the grid.
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-18 12:02:19 UTC
Permalink
By older ones I mean over 34 years old. Most of them won 25 years ago or before. Except for Hill in 1996 and Schumacher in 2004. But those two cars were super dominating and superior... No competition for them....
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-18 12:51:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
The older ones did it over 25 years ago when the grid wasnt as young as it is now...
Most of the drivers on the grid are in their 20s now.
14 of the 20 are in their 20s.
Post by l***@gmail.com
Kimi, Alonso and Hamilton are the 3 oldest drivers on the grid.
All 3 are currently in the top 6 in the WDC. Since HAM's debut in 2007
Kimi has been top 6 in 9 of 10 seasons, Alonso in 8 of 12, and Hamilton
in all 12 - Alonso would almost certainly have been top 6 in 2015-17
with a decent car.

GP Wins

Hamilton 62 (33)
Vettel 49 (30) 31 on 02 July
Alonso 32 (36) 37 on 29 July
Raikkonen 20 (38) 39 on 17 October

Ricciardo 6 (28) 29 on 01 July
Verstappen 3 (20)
Bottas 3 (28) 29 on 28 August

The other 13 have 0 wins, and very little chance of any this year. Most
of them are youngish though.
Mark Jackson
2018-04-18 14:55:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Post by l***@gmail.com
The older ones did it over 25 years ago when the grid wasnt as
young as it is now... Most of the drivers on the grid are in their
20s now.
14 of the 20 are in their 20s.
How about a scatterplot of all races, date of race on the x axis and age
of winner on the y axis. Any trends?
--
Mark Jackson - http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mjackson
This quote is often falsely attributed to Mark Twain.
- Randall Munroe
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-18 15:11:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mark Jackson
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Post by l***@gmail.com
The older ones did it over 25 years ago when the grid wasnt as
young as it is now... Most of the drivers on the grid are in their
20s now.
14 of the 20 are in their 20s.
How about a scatterplot of all races, date of race on the x axis and age
of winner on the y axis.  Any trends?
I'll pass, but out of interest I checked some old files - these are the
average ages of winners for each season (up to 2004).


Year Avg. Age (Excludes Indy 500)
===============
1950 39.97
1951 37.58
1952 34.01
1953 35.80
1954 38.98
1955 38.31
1956 33.50
1957 38.78
1958 29.29
1959 30.12

1950s 35.30

1960 32.09
1961 32.02
1962 29.94
1963 29.06
1964 31.22
1965 30.99
1966 35.18
1967 33.38
1968 32.36
1969 30.04

1960s 31.62

1970 29.09
1971 31.28
1972 29.88
1973 31.51
1974 29.48
1975 29.09
1976 29.50
1977 31.41
1978 35.25
1979 32.61

1970s 30.99

1980 32.58
1981 32.45
1982 31.01
1983 31.49
1984 31.82
1985 30.86
1986 31.57
1987 32.29
1988 30.60
1989 31.85

1980s 31.64

1990 33.82
1991 34.64
1992 35.91
1993 34.87
1994 30.21
1995 29.18
1996 31.20
1997 27.98
1998 30.00
1999 31.60

1990s 31.90

2000 30.96
2001 30.70
2002 32.16
2003 30.54
2004 33.83

2000s 31.68

All Time 31.90

I'll see if I can quickly do from 2005 to date.

Note that only one season has an average age below 29 (1997, 27.98).
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-18 15:43:20 UTC
Permalink
On 18/04/2018 16:11, Brian W Lawrence wrote:

Year   Avg. Age
===============
2005 26.62
2006 30.39
2007 25.82
2008 25.75
2009 28.46

2000s   29.49

2010 28.05
2011 26.52
2012 29.26
2013 27.44
2014 28.70
2015 30.00
2016 30.55
2017 30.43
2018 30.09 (after 3 GPs)

2010s 28.93

All Time 30.53
Mark Jackson
2018-04-18 18:48:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Year   Avg. Age
Thanks. There's a linear trend of getting younger (0.85 years per
decade, or about 5 years in 60) in the seasonal data, with a lot of
scatter of course (R^2 ~= 0.32).
--
Mark Jackson - http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mjackson
This quote is often falsely attributed to Mark Twain.
- Randall Munroe
Mark Jackson
2018-04-18 21:56:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mark Jackson
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Year Avg. Age
Thanks. There's a linear trend of getting younger (0.85 years per
decade, or about 5 years in 60) in the seasonal data, with a lot of
scatter of course (R^2 ~= 0.32).
Scatterplot and trend line at:

http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~mjackson/ages.pdf
--
Mark Jackson - http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mjackson
This quote is often falsely attributed to Mark Twain.
- Randall Munroe
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-19 08:41:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mark Jackson
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Year   Avg. Age
Thanks.  There's a linear trend of getting younger (0.85 years per
decade, or about 5 years in 60) in the seasonal data, with a lot of
scatter of course (R^2 ~= 0.32).
http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~mjackson/ages.pdf
Interesting. Thanks.
larkim
2018-04-19 15:06:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Post by Mark Jackson
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Year   Avg. Age
Thanks.  There's a linear trend of getting younger (0.85 years per
decade, or about 5 years in 60) in the seasonal data, with a lot of
scatter of course (R^2 ~= 0.32).
http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~mjackson/ages.pdf
Interesting. Thanks.
Surnames are getting later in the alphabet too, but forenames staying
consistent.

Line graph and trendline at:-

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1bSoxGPz6tTI5JS1sAXl5uZFnQmXevf29

;-)
Mark Jackson
2018-04-19 18:20:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by larkim
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Post by Mark Jackson
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Year   Avg. Age
Thanks.  There's a linear trend of getting younger (0.85 years per
decade, or about 5 years in 60) in the seasonal data, with a lot of
scatter of course (R^2 ~= 0.32).
http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~mjackson/ages.pdf
Interesting. Thanks.
Surnames are getting later in the alphabet too, but forenames staying
consistent.
Line graph and trendline at:-
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1bSoxGPz6tTI5JS1sAXl5uZFnQmXevf29
We only need seventeen more things to analyze to discover something
significant at the 5% level!
--
Mark Jackson - http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mjackson
This quote is often falsely attributed to Mark Twain.
- Randall Munroe
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-20 10:52:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by larkim
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Post by Mark Jackson
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Year   Avg. Age
Thanks.  There's a linear trend of getting younger (0.85 years per
decade, or about 5 years in 60) in the seasonal data, with a lot of
scatter of course (R^2 ~= 0.32).
http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~mjackson/ages.pdf
Interesting. Thanks.
Surnames are getting later in the alphabet too, but forenames staying
consistent.
Line graph and trendline at:-
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1bSoxGPz6tTI5JS1sAXl5uZFnQmXevf29
;-)
I'm tempted to update my data on GP winners birth signs :-)

Capricorns lead the way with 183 wins, most recently by HAM in USA 2017.
Cancerians are 2nd with 140 (RIC, CHN 2018).
Pisceans are 3rd with 124 (Maldonado, ESP 2012).

Most recent for other signs:

2017 MEX Libra Verstappen
2017 ABD Virgo Bottas
2013 ESP Leo Alonso
2009 ITA Gemini Barrichello
2008 BRA Taurus Massa
2008 CDN Sagittarius Kubica
2003 AUS Aries Coulthard
1999 MAS Scorpio Irvine
1979 ITA Scheckter Aquarius

Sorry :-)
Phil Carmody
2018-04-23 12:34:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brian W Lawrence
2017 MEX Libra Verstappen
2017 ABD Virgo Bottas
2013 ESP Leo Alonso
2009 ITA Gemini Barrichello
2008 BRA Taurus Massa
2008 CDN Sagittarius Kubica
2003 AUS Aries Coulthard
1999 MAS Scorpio Irvine
1979 ITA Scheckter Aquarius
Sorry :-)
Being a Scheckter myself (the sign of slaughter, one of the strongest
celestial signs), I've always been a fan of Mr. Aquarius.

Phil
--
In order for there to be rights, there must be wrongs - if you want to
get rid of wrongs, which great leaders do, you *must* get rid of rights.
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-20 10:42:29 UTC
Permalink
While I wouldn't dream of averaging the ages of all drivers who drove in
any GPs, I was curious enough to do it for the top 5 in each WDC.

# - average age of top 5 was below 30

Year Top 3 Ages Avg.
=============================================================
1950 FAR FAN FAG 43.84 39.20 50.67 44.83 32.14 42.137
1951 FAN ASC GON 40.34 33.29 29.06 44.99 42.45 38.029
1952 ASC FAR TAR 34.15 45.86 45.91 40.30 23.41 37.926
1953 ASC FAN FAR 35.17 42.22 46.87 24.43 44.33 38.604
1954 FAN GON HAW 43.33 32.05 25.54 36.98 44.10 36.402
1955 FAN MOS CAS 44.22 25.98 24.92 37.86 48.87 36.370
1956 FAN MOS COL 45.19 26.96 24.82 35.54 25.90 31.684 [1]
1957 FAN MOS MUS 46.21 27.98 33.11 28.41 25.54 32.250
1958 HAW MOS BRO 29.52 29.09 26.65 36.44 26.95 29.730 #
1959 BRA BRO MOS 33.69 27.79 30.23 32.65 42.12 33.297

1960 BRA MCL MOS 34.64 23.23 31.18 30.44 33.59 30.614
1961 PHI vTR MOS 34.47 33.43 32.06 30.49 31.18 32.324
1962 GHI CLA MCL 33.87 26.82 25.33 28.88 31.71 29.322 #
1963 CLA GHI GIN 27.82 34.86 33.40 29.88 32.71 31.732
1964 SUR GHI CLA 30.70 35.69 28.64 28.85 34.22 31.621
1965 CLA GHI STE 29.64 36.69 26.37 34.53 31.70 31.786
1966 BRA SUR RIN 40.56 32.70 24.51 30.35 37.68 33.160
1967 HUL BRA CLA 31.34 41.56 31.63 33.69 24.26 32.496
1968 GHI STE HUL 39.72 29.40 32.38 23.84 31.18 31.302
1969 STE ICK MCL 30.36 24.80 32.14 27.50 32.48 29.455 #

1970 RIN ICK REG 28.52 25.81 31.14 34.35 44.56 32.877
1971 STE PET CEV 32.31 27.63 27.60 26.75 35.24 29.908 #
1972 FIT STE HUL 25.82 33.33 36.31 27.77 33.61 31.368
1973 STE FIT PET 34.32 26.82 29.65 29.62 34.61 31.003
1974 FIT REG SCH 27.82 35.09 24.68 25.62 30.64 28.769 #
1975 LAU FIT REU 26.61 28.81 33.48 28.10 36.08 30.618
1976 HUN LAU SCH 29.16 27.67 26.74 32.21 37.14 30.581
1977 LAU SCH AND 28.67 27.73 37.65 35.53 30.15 31.946
1978 AND PET REU 38.61 34.65 36.49 29.62 34.16 34.707
1979 SCH VIL JON 29.69 29.72 32.93 35.88 40.09 33.659

1980 JON PIQ REU 33.92 28.13 38.48 36.87 28.53 33.189
1981 PIQ REU JON 29.17 39.52 34.96 37.91 26.64 33.638
1982 ROS PIR WAT 33.80 30.50 36.39 27.58 33.59 32.373
1983 PIQ PRO ARN 31.16 28.64 35.28 34.31 34.86 32.848
1984 LAU PRO deA 35.66 29.66 26.57 27.83 32.18 30.379
1985 PRO ALB ROS 30.69 28.86 36.91 25.62 27.61 29.938 #
1986 PRO MAN PIQ 31.67 33.22 34.19 26.60 30.13 31.161
1987 PIQ MAN SEN 35.24 34.27 27.65 32.72 28.22 31.622
1988 SEN PRO BER 28.65 33.72 29.22 31.34 31.89 30.962
1989 PRO SEN PAT 34.70 29.63 35.55 36.24 32.31 33.687

1990 SEN PRO PIQ 30.63 35.70 38.22 31.20 37.25 34.600
1991 SEN MAN PAT 31.62 38.24 37.55 32.19 36.69 35.256
1992 MAN PAT MSC 39.25 38.56 23.85 32.64 33.20 33.500
1993 PRO SEN DHI 38.70 33.63 33.14 24.84 39.56 33.975
1994 MSC DHI BER 25.86 34.15 35.21 26.12 30.42 30.355
1995 MSC DHI COU 26.86 35.15 24.63 31.38 31.42 29.887 #
1996 DHI VIL MSC 36.07 25.51 27.78 32.34 28.04 29.948 #
1997 VIL FRE COU 26.55 30.44 26.58 33.37 38.17 31.023 [2]

1998 HAK MSC COU 30.09 29.83 27.60 32.97 27.56 29.611 #
1999 HAK IRV FRE 31.09 33.97 32.45 28.60 30.82 31.387

2000 MSC HAK COU 31.80 32.07 29.57 28.42 25.31 29.434 #
2001 MSC COU BAR 32.78 30.55 29.39 26.29 33.04 30.411
2002 MSC BAR MON 33.77 30.39 27.06 27.29 31.55 30.013
2003 MSC RAI MON 34.77 23.99 28.06 31.39 28.28 29.298 #
2004 MSC BAR BUT 35.81 32.42 24.76 23.24 29.10 29.065 #
2005 ALO RAI MSC 24.22 26.00 36.78 30.07 32.75 29.965 #
2006 ALO MSC MAS 25.23 37.80 25.49 33.77 27.01 29.861 #
2007 RAI HAM ALO 28.01 22.78 26.23 26.49 30.61 26.825 #
2008 HAM MAS RAI 23.82 27.52 29.05 23.90 27.26 26.311 #
2009 BUT VET BAR 29.79 22.33 37.44 33.18 24.82 29.511 #

2010 VET ALO WEB 23.37 29.30 34.21 25.85 30.82 28.710 #
2011 VET BUT WEB 24.40 31.85 35.25 30.33 26.89 29.745 #
2012 VET ALO RAI 25.40 31.33 33.11 27.88 32.85 30.114
2013 VET ALO WEB 26.40 32.32 37.24 28.88 34.11 31.789
2014 HAM ROS RIC 29.88 29.41 25.40 25.24 27.39 27.462 #
2015 HAM ROS VET 30.89 30.42 28.41 36.12 26.25 30.419
2016 ROS HAM RIC 32.42 32.89 28.41 30.40 38.11 32.446
2017 HAM VET BOT 32.88 30.40 28.25 38.11 28.41 31.610

Notes:

1. I've excluded the 1956 Indy 500 winner, Pat Flaherty, who was
5th in the final table, and included Eugenio Castellotti (6th).
2. Michael Schumacher was 2nd in the 1997 table but was excluded,
Gerhard Berger (5th) would have been 6th.

I've included 3-letter ids for the top 3, but have not differentiated
between fathers and sons. I did deal with the three Hills by including
their first initial - P Hill (PHI), G Hill (GHI), D Hill (DHI).

Ages were calculated on the date of the final race in each season. Some
drivers in the top 5s were no longer alive on that date, but that fact
has been disregarded - Peter Collins (1958), Wolfgang von Trips (1961),
Jochen Rindt (1970), Jo Siffert (1971), Francois Cevert (1973), Ronnie
Peterson (1978).

Averages by decade:

1950s 35.643
1960s 31.381
1970s 31.544
1980s 31.980
1990s 31.954
2000s 29.070
2010s 24.229

Assuming most of the elder drivers remain in F1 over the next two
years, the 2010s average should rise.
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-20 12:24:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brian W Lawrence
Ages were calculated on the date of the final race in each season. Some
drivers in the top 5s were no longer alive on that date, but that fact
has been disregarded - Peter Collins (1958), Wolfgang von Trips (1961),
Jochen Rindt (1970), Jo Siffert (1971), Francois Cevert (1973), Ronnie
Peterson (1978).
Slight correction - Siffert was killed 24 Oct 1971, 3 weeks after the
season ended.
larkim
2018-04-18 14:39:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
The older ones did it over 25 years ago when the grid wasnt as young as it is now... Most of the drivers on the grid are in their 20s now. Kimi, Alonso and Hamilton are the 3 oldest drivers on the grid.
And last year they were 3 of the four oldest drivers on the grid. Didn't
stop Hamilton winning last year did it?
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-18 16:48:45 UTC
Permalink
This year Ferrari have the best package.
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