Discussion:
History says Hamilton will not win wdc this year
(too old to reply)
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-08 14:47:52 UTC
Permalink
Vettel will.


If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!

This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.

In 2008 and 2015, he won the first race. In 2014 and 2017, he won the second race. In all four of those years, he won the championship.

In 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016 it took him between three and ten races to score his first (or only) win of the season, and didn't win the championship. In 2009 and 2013 he was doubly cursed as his first win of the year came in Hungary - and we all know that the winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix never wins the WDC!

When Hamilton wins one of the first two races of the year, he becomes the world champion. When he doesn't, someone else wins the WDC.
bra
2018-04-08 15:33:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.
As regards your presumptuous declaration "history says":

My old mucker Lev Trotsky warned us that
"You may not be interested in history, but history is interested in you!"

I'm still not sure quite what that means, but Trotsky's yer man. When Pravda (under Stalin) reported Trotsky's death in Mexico, the lead sentence said:

"Trotsky was NOT assassinated; he was cleaning the ice-pick and it went off in his hand."
Alister
2018-04-08 18:07:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in
Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his
11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated
with whether he won the championship.
My old mucker Lev Trotsky warned us that "You may not be interested in
history, but history is interested in you!"
I'm still not sure quite what that means, but Trotsky's yer man. When
Pravda (under Stalin) reported Trotsky's death in Mexico, the lead
"Trotsky was NOT assassinated; he was cleaning the ice-pick and it went off in his hand."
and of course as the financial world will tell you past performance is no
guarantee of future results.

T
--
While you're chewing, think of STEVEN SPIELBERG'S bank account ... his
will have the same effect as two "STARCH BLOCKERS"!
John
2018-04-08 21:40:55 UTC
Permalink
Thought he'd be a shoe-in, but Merc seemed happy to let Bottas stay in front of him so maybe not.
RzR
2018-04-09 07:17:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.
In 2008 and 2015, he won the first race. In 2014 and 2017, he won the second race. In all four of those years, he won the championship.
In 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016 it took him between three and ten races to score his first (or only) win of the season, and didn't win the championship. In 2009 and 2013 he was doubly cursed as his first win of the year came in Hungary - and we all know that the winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix never wins the WDC!
When Hamilton wins one of the first two races of the year, he becomes the world champion. When he doesn't, someone else wins the WDC.
Vettels two wins were a product of a pure luck...lots more racing to go...
Bobster
2018-04-09 07:35:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by RzR
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.
In 2008 and 2015, he won the first race. In 2014 and 2017, he won the second race. In all four of those years, he won the championship.
In 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016 it took him between three and ten races to score his first (or only) win of the season, and didn't win the championship. In 2009 and 2013 he was doubly cursed as his first win of the year came in Hungary - and we all know that the winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix never wins the WDC!
When Hamilton wins one of the first two races of the year, he becomes the world champion. When he doesn't, someone else wins the WDC.
Vettels two wins were a product of a pure luck...lots more racing to go...
Australia, a bit. Bahrain no - he got pole, lead away from the start, then drove a canny race to manage soft tyres to the end of the race.
geoff
2018-04-09 23:29:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bobster
Post by RzR
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.
In 2008 and 2015, he won the first race. In 2014 and 2017, he won the second race. In all four of those years, he won the championship.
In 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016 it took him between three and ten races to score his first (or only) win of the season, and didn't win the championship. In 2009 and 2013 he was doubly cursed as his first win of the year came in Hungary - and we all know that the winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix never wins the WDC!
When Hamilton wins one of the first two races of the year, he becomes the world champion. When he doesn't, someone else wins the WDC.
Vettels two wins were a product of a pure luck...lots more racing to go...
Australia, a bit. Bahrain no - he got pole, lead away from the start, then drove a canny race to manage soft tyres to the end of the race.
Maybe luck that HAM got the penalty. I'm sure that he would have been
more of a threat than BOT's rather half-hearted effort over the last few
laps.

geoff
Bobster
2018-04-10 02:30:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by geoff
Post by Bobster
Post by RzR
Vettels two wins were a product of a pure luck...lots more racing to go...
Australia, a bit. Bahrain no - he got pole, lead away from the start, then drove a canny race to manage soft tyres to the end of the race.
Maybe luck that HAM got the penalty. I'm sure that he would have been
more of a threat than BOT's rather half-hearted effort over the last few
laps.
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made a whole lot of difference?
geoff
2018-04-10 03:09:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bobster
Post by geoff
Post by Bobster
Post by RzR
Vettels two wins were a product of a pure luck...lots more racing to go...
Australia, a bit. Bahrain no - he got pole, lead away from the start, then drove a canny race to manage soft tyres to the end of the race.
Maybe luck that HAM got the penalty. I'm sure that he would have been
more of a threat than BOT's rather half-hearted effort over the last few
laps.
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made a whole lot of difference?
Possibly (maybe even probably), yes.

A great drive from VET anyway.

geoff
Bobster
2018-04-10 14:16:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by geoff
Post by Bobster
Post by geoff
Post by Bobster
Post by RzR
Vettels two wins were a product of a pure luck...lots more racing to go...
Australia, a bit. Bahrain no - he got pole, lead away from the start, then drove a canny race to manage soft tyres to the end of the race.
Maybe luck that HAM got the penalty. I'm sure that he would have been
more of a threat than BOT's rather half-hearted effort over the last few
laps.
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made a whole lot of difference?
Possibly (maybe even probably), yes.
A great drive from VET anyway.
geoff
Two more things
1) Ferrari were faster all weekend
2) But Merc got a sniff in the race because of BAD luck for Vettel. The mess with Raikkonen's 2nd stop effectively shut their pit for a while and certainly reduced their tactical options.

One thing I hope we can all agree on was that this was a far more engrossing race than Australia. More overtaking too, it seemed to me (and with two of the best overtakers making an early exit).
larkim
2018-04-10 15:31:27 UTC
Permalink
Not sure Vettel suffered that bad luck. Once Bottas and Hamilton showed that they weren't at a massive disadvantage on the harder tyres (i.e. as soon as they came back out and were not being distanced by Vettel) it really didn't make any difference to Vettel's race that he couldn't pit whilst the pit was out of action. Even if he had pitted, he'd have ceded track position to at least Bottas, and potentially Hamilton. Even with a decent set of tyres on, it would have been stretching things to see him pass both cars without having to over-use the tyres.
bra
2018-04-10 15:48:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and do some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv now and then.

Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
News
2018-04-10 15:53:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by bra
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and do some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv now and then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
bra
2018-04-10 16:03:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by News
Post by bra
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and do some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv now and then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
No. But I wish.

As rasf1 knows, I follow British stock-car racing, where the reigning world champion and other star-graders start races from the back of the grid. They have 20 or 25 laps to reach the lead, and we enjoy some serious racing, and the front rank drivers learn to watch their mirrors in terror ;-)
t***@gmail.com
2018-04-10 18:43:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by bra
As rasf1 knows, I follow British stock-car racing,
lol
geoff
2018-04-10 20:14:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by News
Post by bra
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made
a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and do
some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv now and
then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
What stops drivers from holding back in the quallies so they start front
of the grid for the real thing ?
News
2018-04-10 20:38:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by geoff
Post by News
Post by bra
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have
made a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and do
some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv now and
then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
What stops drivers from holding back in the quallies so they start front
of the grid for the real thing ?
All the direct and indirect compensation in sandbagging...
bra
2018-04-10 21:23:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by geoff
Post by News
Post by bra
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have made
a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and do
some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv now and
then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
What stops drivers from holding back in the quallies so they start front
of the grid for the real thing ?
It cannot work in Grand Prix, but the principle used in BriSCA racing is based on cumulative points earned over the year, NOT in qualifying for each race.

Thus, in 2018 a "Hamilton" would start at the back in every GP, and the rest in reverse order. Those with zero points would form the front ranks.

It works well in BriSCA but it could never work in GP's, because you're not really supposed to ram your rivals into the fence on your progress forward ;-) ;-)
t***@gmail.com
2018-04-10 21:48:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by bra
;-) ;-)
That is great us of the double smileys.
You bed shitting, homosexual.
Bobster
2018-04-11 05:26:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by bra
Post by geoff
What stops drivers from holding back in the quallies so they start front
of the grid for the real thing ?
It cannot work in Grand Prix, but the principle used in BriSCA racing is based on cumulative points earned over the year, NOT in qualifying for each race.
Thus, in 2018 a "Hamilton" would start at the back in every GP, and the rest in reverse order. Those with zero points would form the front ranks.
It works well in BriSCA but it could never work in GP's, because you're not really supposed to ram your rivals into the fence on your progress forward ;-) ;-)
Shhh! You'll give people ideas.
bra
2018-04-11 15:36:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bobster
Post by bra
It works well in BriSCA but it could never work in GP's, because you're not really supposed to ram your rivals into the fence on your progress forward ;-) ;-)
Shhh! You'll give people ideas.
Here's Danny Wainman #212 moving up the field: Loading Image...
bra
2018-04-11 16:17:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by bra
Here's Danny Wainman #212 moving up the field: http://www.oldstox.com/images/frankie%20w%20crash.jpg
BTW, Danny #212 is climbing across his older stepbrother, Frankie Wainman Jnr #515. Keeping it in the family :-)
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-14 09:49:21 UTC
Permalink
Tomorrow Vettel will win China.

Everytime a driver won the first 3 races, he won the wdc.

Vettel will win the wdc this year.
~misfit~
2018-04-14 12:30:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Tomorrow Vettel will win China.
Everytime a driver won the first 3 races, he won the wdc.
Vettel will win the wdc this year.
That red car was looking imperious in qualifying. Kimi came sooo close to
pole, I feel for him.
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy
little classification in the DSM*."
David Melville (in r.a.s.f1)
(*Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders)
Sir Tim
2018-04-14 12:42:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by ~misfit~
Post by l***@gmail.com
Tomorrow Vettel will win China.
Everytime a driver won the first 3 races, he won the wdc.
Vettel will win the wdc this year.
That red car was looking imperious in qualifying. Kimi came sooo close to
pole, I feel for him.
Yes, Kimi is looking really strong this year. All he needs is a bit more
luck.
--
Sir Tim
~misfit~
2018-04-14 13:03:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Sir Tim
Post by ~misfit~
Post by l***@gmail.com
Tomorrow Vettel will win China.
Everytime a driver won the first 3 races, he won the wdc.
Vettel will win the wdc this year.
That red car was looking imperious in qualifying. Kimi came sooo
close to pole, I feel for him.
Yes, Kimi is looking really strong this year. All he needs is a bit
more luck.
He certainly is - and I wish him all the luck. I think 2018 is likely going
to be his last year in F1, it'd be good to see him go out on a high note.
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy
little classification in the DSM*."
David Melville (in r.a.s.f1)
(*Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders)
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-14 15:12:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Tomorrow Vettel will win China.
Everytime a driver won the first 3 races, he won the wdc.
Vettel will win the wdc this year.
While 10 WDCs did win the title after winning the first 3 GPs, the
points they obtained from those 3 wins has lessened in significance
over the years.

There were 3 instances in the 1950s - 1953, 54 & 57. In fact all
three only won 3 of the first 4 events, because the Indy 500 was part
of the championship, and none of them took part in that. After
4 events all 3 WDCs (Ascari, Fangio, Fangio) had scored 25 points,
which was well over 50% of their eventual total points. There were
restrictions on how many events could be counted towards the WDC in
those years.

Between 1991 & 2004 a further 6 WDCs were won after winning the
first 3 events. In all cases the eventual WDC had scored 30 points after
3. Thirty points was about 30% of the drivers' eventual points total
in the first five of those (1991, 92, 94, 96 & 2000). In the 6th case
(2004) the season had expanded to 18 events and Schumacher's 30 points
was only 20% of his final total.

The most recent instance was in 2016 when Rosberg's 3 wins were
worth 75 points, 19% of his final total.

Vettel may well win tomorrow. He may will win the WDC this year.
Winning the first three certainly helps a driver win the title,
but whoever they are, there is still an awful lot of effort and
luck required to achieve the goal.
Sir Tim
2018-04-15 09:41:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Tomorrow Vettel will win China.
Oh yeah?
l***@gmail.com
2018-04-15 12:45:32 UTC
Permalink
Vettel is obviously winning the wdc. Ferrari have the best package this year. Even Red Bull are better than Mercedes in 2018. The winning cycle is over for Mercedes. Had to happen someday.
Sir Tim
2018-04-15 13:03:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel is obviously winning the wdc. Ferrari have the best package this
year. Even Red Bull are better than Mercedes in 2018. The winning cycle
is over for Mercedes. Had to happen someday.
Just cling on to that thought :-)
~misfit~
2018-04-11 03:51:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by geoff
Post by News
Post by bra
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have
made a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and
do some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv
now and then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
What stops drivers from holding back in the quallies so they start
front of the grid for the real thing ?
Points for qualifying.

Or following the format of GP2 / F1, which should appeal to Liberty as it
would mean *two* races per GP meeting.
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy
little classification in the DSM*."
David Melville (in r.a.s.f1)
(*Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders)
Phil Carmody
2018-04-23 12:00:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by geoff
Post by News
Post by bra
Post by Bobster
Without that Penalty HAM would have started 4th. Would that have
made a whole lot of difference?
Race A: Hamilton on pole and takes off like a rocket, and I go and
do some washing-up and check the garden, with a glance at the tv
now and then.
Race B: Hamilton penalized way back in the grid, and I sit glued to the screen.
So, Liberty will advocate for inverted grids #FTW
What stops drivers from holding back in the quallies so they start
front of the grid for the real thing ?
You drive an opponent's car, to try to push them further up (=down).

Phil
--
In order for there to be rights, there must be wrongs - if you want to
get rid of wrongs, which great leaders do, you *must* get rid of rights.
Brian W Lawrence
2018-04-09 09:33:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.
In 2008 and 2015, he won the first race. In 2014 and 2017, he won the second race. In all four of those years, he won the championship.
In 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016 it took him between three and ten races to score his first (or only) win of the season, and didn't win the championship. In 2009 and 2013 he was doubly cursed as his first win of the year came in Hungary - and we all know that the winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix never wins the WDC!
When Hamilton wins one of the first two races of the year, he becomes the world champion. When he doesn't, someone else wins the WDC.
70.6% of Champions won either the first or second event.

Which also means that ~30% of Champions didn't win their first GP in
their Championship-winning year until the third (or later) event.

Ten Champions didn't win until the 3rd GP:

1960 Brabham [McLaren, Moss]
1961 Hill (P) [Moss, von Trips]
1966 Brabham [Stewart, Surtees]
1970 Rindt [Brabham, Stewart]
1972 Fittipaldi [Stewart, Hulme]
1973 Stewart [Fittipaldi (both)]
1977 Lauda [Scheckter, Reutemann]
1981 Piquet [Jones, Reutemann]
1986 Prost [Piquet, Senna]
2010 Vettel [Alonso, Button]

Fourth GP:

1976 Hunt [Lauda, Lauda, Regazzoni]
2003 Schumacher [Coulthard, Raikkonen, Fisichella]
2012 Vettel [Button, Alonso, Rosberg]

Fifth:

1958 Hawthorn [Moss, Trintignant, Moss, Brooks]
1975 Lauda [Fittipaldi, Pace, Scheckter, Mass]
1989 Prost [Mansell, Senna (2, 3, 4)]

Sixth:

1964 Surtees [Hill (G), Clark (2, 3), Moss, Gurney, Clark]
1979 Scheckter [Laffite (1, 2), Villeneuve (3, 4), Depailler]

Two others' first win was later:

1987 Piquet 8th
1982 Rosberg 14th

In 1987 - Prost, Mansell, Prost, Senna (4, 5), Mansell (6, 7)

1982 - Prost, Piquet, Lauda, Pironi, Watson, Patrese, Watson,
Piquet, Pironi, Lauda, Arnoux, Tambay, de Angelis
Willsy
2018-04-23 12:26:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by l***@gmail.com
Vettel will.
If you believe in patterns repeating themselves, this weekend's race in Bahrain is an absolutely must-win for Hamilton's WDC attempt!
This is his 12th season in F1. He's won at least on race in each of his 11 seasons to date, but how long it's taken him to do so has correlated with whether he won the championship.
In 2008 and 2015, he won the first race. In 2014 and 2017, he won the second race. In all four of those years, he won the championship.
In 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016 it took him between three and ten races to score his first (or only) win of the season, and didn't win the championship. In 2009 and 2013 he was doubly cursed as his first win of the year came in Hungary - and we all know that the winner of the Hungarian Grand Prix never wins the WDC!
When Hamilton wins one of the first two races of the year, he becomes the world champion. When he doesn't, someone else wins the WDC.
Nonsense. One DNF from VET and it's all back on big style.

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