Discussion:
Mathematical championships
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Geoff May
2018-09-16 14:26:59 UTC
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Looking at the results from today, only the following drivers can
mathematically win the WDC:
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 281
VET Ferrari 2 241 6.7
RAI Ferrari 3 174 17.8
BOT Mercedes 4 171 18.3
VER Red Bull 5 148 22.2

Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that the
driver needs to beat HAM.

If HAM wins one more race, VER cannot win.

If HAM wins 2 more races, RAI and BOT cannot win.

If HAM wins 2 races and is 4th place or higher for the rest, VET cannot win.

Side note, Perez is the only driver this year to be classified in every
race.

Cheers

Geoff.
Willsy
2018-09-19 11:28:56 UTC
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Post by Geoff May
Looking at the results from today, only the following drivers can
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 281
VET Ferrari 2 241 6.7
RAI Ferrari 3 174 17.8
BOT Mercedes 4 171 18.3
VER Red Bull 5 148 22.2
Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that the
driver needs to beat HAM.
If HAM wins one more race, VER cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 more races, RAI and BOT cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 races and is 4th place or higher for the rest, VET cannot win.
Side note, Perez is the only driver this year to be classified in every
race.
Cheers
Geoff.
Thanks for this analysis, that's interesting. It's also interesting how
quickly things can change. A couple of DNFs for HAM and things are going
to look VERY different! He's not home yet!

The turning point in the championship (so far) was (imo) VETs DNF at
Monza, where he dropped it in the rain. It should have been an easy
win for him. As things now stand, he's firmly on the back-foot, relying
on DNFs for HAM (again, IMO).

Mark

Mark
larkim
2018-09-19 12:32:14 UTC
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Post by Willsy
Post by Geoff May
Looking at the results from today, only the following drivers can
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 281
VET Ferrari 2 241 6.7
RAI Ferrari 3 174 17.8
BOT Mercedes 4 171 18.3
VER Red Bull 5 148 22.2
Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that the
driver needs to beat HAM.
If HAM wins one more race, VER cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 more races, RAI and BOT cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 races and is 4th place or higher for the rest, VET cannot win.
Side note, Perez is the only driver this year to be classified in every
race.
Cheers
Geoff.
Thanks for this analysis, that's interesting. It's also interesting how
quickly things can change. A couple of DNFs for HAM and things are going
to look VERY different! He's not home yet!
The turning point in the championship (so far) was (imo) VETs DNF at
Monza, where he dropped it in the rain. It should have been an easy
win for him. As things now stand, he's firmly on the back-foot, relying
on DNFs for HAM (again, IMO).
Mark
Mark
Hockenheim I think you mean :-)
Willsy
2018-09-19 13:35:12 UTC
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Post by larkim
Post by Willsy
Post by Geoff May
Looking at the results from today, only the following drivers can
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 281
VET Ferrari 2 241 6.7
RAI Ferrari 3 174 17.8
BOT Mercedes 4 171 18.3
VER Red Bull 5 148 22.2
Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that the
driver needs to beat HAM.
If HAM wins one more race, VER cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 more races, RAI and BOT cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 races and is 4th place or higher for the rest, VET cannot win.
Side note, Perez is the only driver this year to be classified in every
race.
Cheers
Geoff.
Thanks for this analysis, that's interesting. It's also interesting how
quickly things can change. A couple of DNFs for HAM and things are going
to look VERY different! He's not home yet!
The turning point in the championship (so far) was (imo) VETs DNF at
Monza, where he dropped it in the rain. It should have been an easy
win for him. As things now stand, he's firmly on the back-foot, relying
on DNFs for HAM (again, IMO).
Mark
Mark
Hockenheim I think you mean :-)
My bad! Thanks for the correction!
DumbedDownUSA
2018-09-19 17:51:45 UTC
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Post by Willsy
Post by Geoff May
Looking at the results from today, only the following drivers can
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 281
VET Ferrari 2 241 6.7
RAI Ferrari 3 174 17.8
BOT Mercedes 4 171 18.3
VER Red Bull 5 148 22.2
Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM
that the driver needs to beat HAM.
If HAM wins one more race, VER cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 more races, RAI and BOT cannot win.
If HAM wins 2 races and is 4th place or higher for the rest, VET cannot win.
Side note, Perez is the only driver this year to be classified in
every race.
Cheers
Geoff.
Thanks for this analysis, that's interesting. It's also interesting
how quickly things can change. A couple of DNFs for HAM and things
are going to look VERY different! He's not home yet!
The turning point in the championship (so far) was (imo) VETs DNF at
Monza, where he dropped it in the rain. It should have been an easy
win for him. As things now stand, he's firmly on the back-foot,
relying on DNFs for HAM (again, IMO).
6.7 < 1st-2nd

He needs to win races and the team need to step up. Ferrari were
beginning to look like they had the edge but they kept dropping the
ball, now it's not so clear.
--
"We have helped to create a situation that has allowed us to end up
with Trump. The dumbing down of our society through the media, the lack
of education through poor schools, allows for a dumbed-down electorate,
and for him to be able to actually get 63 million votes."
Geoff May
2018-10-07 07:01:16 UTC
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Updated after today's race. I missed last week as there were too many
combinations.

Only HAM and VET can now win the championship:
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 331
VET Ferrari 2 264 16.8

Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that VET
needs to win the WDC.

If HAM gets 8 or more points than VET in the next race then HAM is WDC.

If HAM gets 33 points over the last 4 races, he is WDC.

Cheers

Geoff
Bruce Hoult
2018-10-07 08:35:28 UTC
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Post by Geoff May
Updated after today's race. I missed last week as there were too many
combinations.
Driver Team Rank Points Required
HAM Mercedes 1 331
VET Ferrari 2 264 16.8
Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that VET
needs to win the WDC.
If HAM gets 8 or more points than VET in the next race then HAM is WDC.
If HAM gets 33 points over the last 4 races, he is WDC.
HAM average points per race, season to date: 19.47
HAM required points per race, remaining races: 8.25

And that's assuming VET wins the rest.

There's a considerably more than 50% chance he'll take the trophy in Austin, I'd say.
Alister
2018-10-07 09:49:29 UTC
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Post by Geoff May
Updated after today's race. I missed last week as there were too many
combinations.
Driver Team Rank Points Required HAM Mercedes 1 331 VET
Ferrari 2 264 16.8
Required is the average number of points per race more than HAM that
VET needs to win the WDC.
If HAM gets 8 or more points than VET in the next race then HAM is WDC.
If HAM gets 33 points over the last 4 races, he is WDC.
HAM average points per race, season to date: 19.47 HAM required points
per race, remaining races: 8.25
And that's assuming VET wins the rest.
There's a considerably more than 50% chance he'll take the trophy in Austin, I'd say.
if not Austin then Mexico is highly probable, (unless the Hungary jinx
strikes with a vengeance)
--
I am NOMAD!
bra
2018-10-07 15:42:16 UTC
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Post by Geoff May
Looking at the results from today, only the following drivers can
Reminds me of mathematics in kart racing. Abbi Pulling has just, uniquely, won a consecutive Super One British championship. Her 2017 final race was described by the commentators as 'the greatest kart race ever'. In that race, leading the championship, Abbi knew the accumulated points of the drivers ahead of her on track: four drivers could take the championship. She had to hold off passing (she was a target) but she did so every time a rival gained a points advantage as the race went on. Very cool driver, making the deciding pass only on the last half of the last lap. She said afterwards that she was constantly juggling her rivals' points while driving.

Her 2018 championship was won the same way, ie not from P1.
Wasn't it Prost who said he won races at the slowest possible speed?

BTW, as is too common, a sports car team is recruiting her away from karts far too young, at 15. Terry Fullerton used to rage against this practice, luring top karters when they have more to learn and contribute. Remember Ayrton Senna saying that the best driver he had ever competed against was Terry Fullerton, in karts.
Calum
2018-10-07 16:04:46 UTC
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Post by bra
BTW, as is too common, a sports car team is recruiting her away from karts far too young, at 15. Terry Fullerton used to rage against this practice, luring top karters when they have more to learn and contribute. Remember Ayrton Senna saying that the best driver he had ever competed against was Terry Fullerton, in karts.
To be pedantic, he never said he was the best, just the most satisfying
to race against.
bra
2018-10-07 16:13:29 UTC
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Post by Calum
Post by bra
BTW, as is too common, a sports car team is recruiting her away from karts far too young, at 15. Terry Fullerton used to rage against this practice, luring top karters when they have more to learn and contribute. Remember Ayrton Senna saying that the best driver he had ever competed against was Terry Fullerton, in karts.
To be pedantic, he never said he was the best, just the most satisfying
to race against.
Thank you --- I wonder what he meant; perhaps the straight honesty.
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